LNP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Warren Entsch, since 2010. Previously member for Leichhardt 1996-2007.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Leichhardt covers the Cape York Peninsula and the east coast of Australia as far south as Cairns. While the seat covers a vast area, most of the population is in the area around Cairns.
History
Leichhardt was first created at the 1949 election. Apart from the 2010 and 2022 elections, the seat has been won by the party of government at every election since 1972.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Tom Gilmore of the Country Party, who was defeated by the ALP’s Henry Bruce in 1951. Bruce held the seat until his death shortly before the 1958 election, when he was succeeded by Bill Fulton.
Fulton held the seat until his retirement at the 1975 election. David Thomson won the seat for the National Country Party in 1975, and served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1979 until his defeat at the 1983 election, when John Gayler (ALP) won the seat.
Gaylor held the seat until his retirement in 1993, and the ALP’s Peter Dodd held the seat for one term before he was defeated by Warren Entsch (LIB) in 1996.
Entsch held the seat for eleven years before retiring in 2007, when a swing of over 14% gave the seat to the ALP’s Jim Turnour.
In 2010, Entsch returned to politics and won his seat back off Turnour with a swing of 8.6%, and he has been re-elected four more times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Warren Entsch is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Leichhardt is a marginal seat. Warren Entsch’s retirement could boost Labor’s chances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Warren Entsch | Liberal National | 33,652 | 36.7 | -0.9 |
| Elida Faith | Labor | 25,312 | 27.6 | -1.2 |
| Phillip Musumeci | Greens | 9,143 | 10.0 | -0.4 |
| Geena Court | One Nation | 6,822 | 7.4 | +1.4 |
| Rod Jensen | Katter’s Australian Party | 5,166 | 5.6 | -2.5 |
| Pat O’Shane | Socialist Alliance | 3,729 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| Daniel Hannagan | United Australia | 3,593 | 3.9 | -0.1 |
| Silvia Mogorovich | Informed Medical Options | 1,641 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Susanne Bayly | Animal Justice | 1,253 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Adam Cropp | Fusion | 930 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Paul Roe | Federation Party | 466 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 6,715 | 6.8 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Warren Entsch | Liberal National | 49,010 | 53.4 | -0.7 |
| Elida Faith | Labor | 42,697 | 46.6 | +0.7 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Cairns council area have been split into north, central and south Cairns. Polling places in the Douglas council area have been grouped, and the remainder have been grouped as Cape York. Most of the population is in Cairns.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four out of five areas, ranging from 50.1% in northern Cairns to 56.8% in Douglas. Labor won 52% in central Cairns. The LNP also polled about 55% of the pre-poll and other votes.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.6% in Cape York to 12.6% in central Cairns.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Cairns North | 13.1 | 50.1 | 11,591 | 12.6 |
| Cairns Central | 12.6 | 48.0 | 9,708 | 10.6 |
| Cairns South | 9.4 | 53.2 | 5,895 | 6.4 |
| Cape York | 5.6 | 52.7 | 3,592 | 3.9 |
| Douglas | 10.8 | 56.8 | 3,006 | 3.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.2 | 54.7 | 42,301 | 46.1 |
| Other votes | 9.1 | 55.4 | 15,614 | 17.0 |
Election results in Leichhardt at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Given that the Liberal candidate is quite Trump-aligned and Trump has gotten considerably less popular in recent months, together with this potentially being responsible for a noticeable nation-wide boost for Labour, Leichardt is now looking more likely as a Labour gain. If not, it’ll most likely be close enough to be one of the more intriguing seats to watch.
Labor always strong in Cairns, the MAGA guy has Entsch campaigning alonside him. Sure, Trump is loathed in DoctorsWivesVille NSW, not sure about anywhere else.
Some controversy over historical remarks by the LNP guy, not sure they would hurt him in a Seat like Leichhardt.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/09/lnp-candidate-jeremy-neal-leichardt-queensland-china-covid-lockdown-social-media-posts-ntwnfb
Out of 10 candidates, LNP has Trumpets 7, LC 8, Labor 9, Greens 10.
Looking at the tables above, Entsch anaged to turn 36.7% PV into 53.4% 2PP, a remarkable result in a bad year, imo.
There is also no Socialist Alliance or Animal Justice running this election- so it’s likely these voters will swing behind the Greens resulting in a higher Greens vote. Interesting that both the Greens and the ALP have preferenced each other over Legalise Cannabis. Legalise Cannabis could get a decent vote being top of the ballot.
Leichhardt is still the most feasible Labor gain (from the LNP) in Queensland at this election IMO. Entsch is off the ticket and at least from my perspective the new LNP candidate seems to be a bit “meh.” There was a controversy or two surrounding him in the media a few weeks back, from what I remember it was nothing all too serious, but that’s really not something you want to deal with given the recovery for Labor in the polls and the relatively tight margin here.
Right now I’m leaning towards a very narrow Labor gain, probably with a margin under 0.5%, but won’t be shocked at all if the LNP hang on here either.
There seems to have been a large shift in older voters in this electorate so perhaps the Coalition hang on.
Very fast growing yeah – not the right demographic moving in and it disrupts the effect of the disappearing personal vote of Ensch