LNP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Warren Entsch, since 2010. Previously member for Leichhardt 1996-2007.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Leichhardt covers the Cape York Peninsula and the east coast of Australia as far south as Cairns. While the seat covers a vast area, most of the population is in the area around Cairns.
History
Leichhardt was first created at the 1949 election. Apart from the 2010 and 2022 elections, the seat has been won by the party of government at every election since 1972.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Tom Gilmore of the Country Party, who was defeated by the ALP’s Henry Bruce in 1951. Bruce held the seat until his death shortly before the 1958 election, when he was succeeded by Bill Fulton.
Fulton held the seat until his retirement at the 1975 election. David Thomson won the seat for the National Country Party in 1975, and served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1979 until his defeat at the 1983 election, when John Gayler (ALP) won the seat.
Gaylor held the seat until his retirement in 1993, and the ALP’s Peter Dodd held the seat for one term before he was defeated by Warren Entsch (LIB) in 1996.
Entsch held the seat for eleven years before retiring in 2007, when a swing of over 14% gave the seat to the ALP’s Jim Turnour.
In 2010, Entsch returned to politics and won his seat back off Turnour with a swing of 8.6%, and he has been re-elected four more times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Warren Entsch is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Leichhardt is a marginal seat. Warren Entsch’s retirement could boost Labor’s chances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Warren Entsch | Liberal National | 33,652 | 36.7 | -0.9 |
| Elida Faith | Labor | 25,312 | 27.6 | -1.2 |
| Phillip Musumeci | Greens | 9,143 | 10.0 | -0.4 |
| Geena Court | One Nation | 6,822 | 7.4 | +1.4 |
| Rod Jensen | Katter’s Australian Party | 5,166 | 5.6 | -2.5 |
| Pat O’Shane | Socialist Alliance | 3,729 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| Daniel Hannagan | United Australia | 3,593 | 3.9 | -0.1 |
| Silvia Mogorovich | Informed Medical Options | 1,641 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Susanne Bayly | Animal Justice | 1,253 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Adam Cropp | Fusion | 930 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Paul Roe | Federation Party | 466 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 6,715 | 6.8 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Warren Entsch | Liberal National | 49,010 | 53.4 | -0.7 |
| Elida Faith | Labor | 42,697 | 46.6 | +0.7 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Cairns council area have been split into north, central and south Cairns. Polling places in the Douglas council area have been grouped, and the remainder have been grouped as Cape York. Most of the population is in Cairns.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four out of five areas, ranging from 50.1% in northern Cairns to 56.8% in Douglas. Labor won 52% in central Cairns. The LNP also polled about 55% of the pre-poll and other votes.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.6% in Cape York to 12.6% in central Cairns.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Cairns North | 13.1 | 50.1 | 11,591 | 12.6 |
| Cairns Central | 12.6 | 48.0 | 9,708 | 10.6 |
| Cairns South | 9.4 | 53.2 | 5,895 | 6.4 |
| Cape York | 5.6 | 52.7 | 3,592 | 3.9 |
| Douglas | 10.8 | 56.8 | 3,006 | 3.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.2 | 54.7 | 42,301 | 46.1 |
| Other votes | 9.1 | 55.4 | 15,614 | 17.0 |
Election results in Leichhardt at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Given that the Liberal candidate is quite Trump-aligned and Trump has gotten considerably less popular in recent months, together with this potentially being responsible for a noticeable nation-wide boost for Labour, Leichardt is now looking more likely as a Labour gain. If not, it’ll most likely be close enough to be one of the more intriguing seats to watch.
Labor always strong in Cairns, the MAGA guy has Entsch campaigning alonside him. Sure, Trump is loathed in DoctorsWivesVille NSW, not sure about anywhere else.
Some controversy over historical remarks by the LNP guy, not sure they would hurt him in a Seat like Leichhardt.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/09/lnp-candidate-jeremy-neal-leichardt-queensland-china-covid-lockdown-social-media-posts-ntwnfb
Out of 10 candidates, LNP has Trumpets 7, LC 8, Labor 9, Greens 10.
Looking at the tables above, Entsch anaged to turn 36.7% PV into 53.4% 2PP, a remarkable result in a bad year, imo.
There is also no Socialist Alliance or Animal Justice running this election- so it’s likely these voters will swing behind the Greens resulting in a higher Greens vote. Interesting that both the Greens and the ALP have preferenced each other over Legalise Cannabis. Legalise Cannabis could get a decent vote being top of the ballot.
Leichhardt is still the most feasible Labor gain (from the LNP) in Queensland at this election IMO. Entsch is off the ticket and at least from my perspective the new LNP candidate seems to be a bit “meh.” There was a controversy or two surrounding him in the media a few weeks back, from what I remember it was nothing all too serious, but that’s really not something you want to deal with given the recovery for Labor in the polls and the relatively tight margin here.
Right now I’m leaning towards a very narrow Labor gain, probably with a margin under 0.5%, but won’t be shocked at all if the LNP hang on here either.
There seems to have been a large shift in older voters in this electorate so perhaps the Coalition hang on.
Very fast growing yeah – not the right demographic moving in and it disrupts the effect of the disappearing personal vote of Ensch
After being on pre-poll handing out HTV’s over the last two weeks, there is a definite generational gap between younger people taking Greens + Labor and older people taking One Nation and LNP. I won’t be surprised if One Nation pick up a decent vote, Geena Court has been talking about Youth Crime nearly every day. Leichhardt is going to be way too close to call- all the right wing parties will harvest preferences towards the LNP EXCEPT Trumpet who have put the LNP last.
It was mentioned in the Australian Financial Review the hopes of Labor winning this seat were fading. AFR are not right all the time though, what was reported from their Liberal sources last election seemed to be propping up a narrative rather then being accurate in terms of the polling.
@QLDer when Geena Court ran in Cairns she picked up a decent vote share, with an 11% swing to get 16.9% of the primary vote. I’m surprised she didn’t run in Leichhardt this time.
We won!!!!!!!! Chicken dinner.
Not even slightly close. I was pretty confident on a Labor gain, but was not prepared for that result in either primary or TPP.
When you look at the results Warren Entsch’s personal vote was probably about 10%. The huge swings in indiginous aress show that personal vote loss even further. Everybody I knew in FNQ always spoke very highly of him as person and MP.
Unlike last time where there was a massive swing to the LNP in the Indigenous communities it appears that this time there’s been a big swing back to Labor in most of them. However, it’s still nothing like the margins Labor used to get in these towns.
Even areas of Leichhardt that used to be fairly solid Liberal territory have turned away. Neal won only 10 booths, and three of them were pre-polling booths.
The only locations in Leichhardt that favoured the LNP in the 2PP on election day were Palm Cove (by 2 votes), Trinity Beach (by 19 votes out of 1247 cast), Clifton Beach (by 19 votes again, out of 941 cast), Wonga Beach, Bentley Park, Miallo and Daintree.
Within Cairns itself, Smith recorded results of 69% at Cairns West, 68% at Manunda, 68% at Machans Beach, 67% at Smithfield, 65% in the city, 65% at Parramatta Park. Even leafy green Freshwater went 60% for the ALP.
Talking swings, the ALP had swings of 29% (Bamaga), 27% (Hope Vale), 24% (Coen), 22 % (Tamwoy) and 20% Pormpuraaw. Only Bentley Park (by 0.04%) and Trinity Beach (0.98%) headed towards the LNP.
So people here dismissed Jeremy Neal’s frankly repugnant and out of touch comments from a few years ago as a ‘nothingburger’ when the electorate’s LNP tendencies was with Entsch and his moderate record instead of Neal’s MAGA wannabe views. Now they’ve abandoned the LNP altogether with a catastrophic swing to Labor. Just extraordinary.
Pretty incredible this is the only regional seat Queensland Labor remains competitive in federally.
Leichhardt had been a bellwether seat from 1972 until 2010, and arguably it was Warren Entsch alone who prevented this seat being lost in 2022. Even while Entsch was in Canberra, Leichhardt voters would consistently vote ALP on the state level (the 2012 Newman landslide notwithstanding).
Do you mean it’s incredible that there’s only one regional seat Labor are competitive in, or this one in particular?
That Labor is only competitive in this seat anymore, when they also used to be competitive in Flynn, Capricornia, Dawson, Herbert, etc
Ah okay, I misinterpreted what you meant. I thought you were saying “It’s incredible – that out of all of the seats Labor would be competitive in – that it was Leichhardt of all seats!”
It wasn’t that long ago that the four other seats you mentioned were held by Labor. In the sweep of history, a rather insignificant time. Look at all the seats that the Howard government once held, but no longer do. Things can change, and do.
Yes, Real Talk – overall it is an artefact of demographic change. Rural voters with a background in the primary industry sector (agriculture, forestry, mining etc) no longer have a strong union focus and thus are not inclined to continue supporting Labor. At a state level, Labor lost the seats covering Rockhampton and Mackay (including the two central namesake ones that were even retained during the 2012 LNP landslide).
Conversely, the reverse effect is occurring in once affluent inner-city districts that had voted for the Liberals with double digit margins earlier this century. Tangney and Bennelong fit into this category and whilst the Liberals do have a chance of winning these seats back sometime in the near future (possibly 2028 if they can recover quickly), I doubt they will exceed the high single digits even in a landslide/wave environment.
It is symbolic to have a QLD seat outside Greater Brisbane for QLD